Status Report

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The coronavirus is currently paralysing the world to a large extent. The rate of infection is currently also increasing rapidly in India. The resulting effects are divided into economic, political and social consequences as follows and are intended to shed light on how India is dealing with the current situation

Influence through Covid-19

The coronavirus is currently paralysing the world to a large extent. The rate of infection is currently also increasing rapidly in India. The resulting effects are divided into economic, political and social consequences as follows and are intended to shed light on how India is dealing with the current situation


General

India currently has 4908 confirmed cases (status 07.04.2020 at 21.00; source: John Hopkins University & Medicine). Of these, 4389 are active, 382 cured and 137 dead. The active cases are in the states of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Goa.
Worldwide, air traffic has been severely disrupted - as in India. As of Monday 23 March, all commercial flights to and from India have been suspended. The German government has flown German tourists out of the country as part of a worldwide recall operation. This action was completed last week. Entry and exit are therefore no longer possible. Since March 13, 2020, all visas issued to foreigners have been declared invalid until April 15, 2020.


Political

A nationwide curfew was imposed from Wednesday 25 March. During the 3-week curfew, people are only allowed to leave their own premises for shopping or self-catering. Only grocery stores and pharmacies remain open. In addition, restaurants that meet certain conditions may continue to deliver their food. Compliance is ensured by increased police controls. In addition, schools, universities and factories will remain closed, workers will work in home offices and public life will be largely suspended, and travel and tourist attractions will be closed.
 
However, the government is taking measures to help the destitute through this period. Free food and drinks are distributed and disinfection facilities are provided.


Economical

The VDMA India has conducted a quick poll with member companies on site about the current situation. There was a strong response (absolute: N=278). This shows that the need for replacement and relevance for machine and plant manufacturers is high. When asked whether significant disruptions in the workflow are currently being felt as a result of the virus, 94% (n=222) answered "Yes". Only a minimal part, 6%, is not affected by the corona virus. In the further course of the study, the severity and nature of the disturbances were discussed.

Disruptions along the supply chain: Two fifths (n=87) believe they suffer from serious disorders. Almost half (n=102) speak of noticeable disturbances and one tenth (n=18) of minor disturbances. A small proportion (n=4) currently have no deficiencies to report.

Cancellations: Here 17% (n=36) assume that they will survive the crisis without losses or cancellations. However, 33% (n=69) see a low risk and another 35% (n=74%) a noticeable risk. 15% believe that they will have serious problems with order cancellations.

Liquidity bottlenecks: Nearly one-fifth assume a minimal risk of liquidity problems. Half (n=106) expect noticeable losses and one third (n=60) serious losses.

Of the companies not yet affected by the virus, 64% (n=9) expect problems within the next 3 months.
 
When asked whether they expect losses in 2020, 91% (n=201) answered "yes". 78% of the companies which answered yes expect losses of between 10% and 40%. Furthermore, 71% (n=155) are cancelling their investment plans due to the current situation.

When asked when the situation would return to normal, 22% (n=48) answered 1-3 months. 44% think it will take 3-6 months and one third think that this period is not enough either.


Social

During curfews, the government calls on the population to participate in activities at irregular intervals to keep motivation high. These include applauding on balconies and lighting candles. This is accepted by large parts of the population and serves as a sign of respect for those who have to work during the crisis and should help to strengthen the community spirit.
Due to the factory closures and the shutdown in general, many people are currently unemployed and therefore not able to earn a living, let alone travel to their families, most of whom live hundreds of kilometres away, as travelling within the country is not possible either. Thus many migrant workers are currently trying in vain to get to work or home.